Antibiotics Use Versus Profitability on Sow Farms in the Netherlands-Part 1
作者Authors:
Marcel van Asseldonk
Carolien de Lauwere
John Bonestroo
Nico Bondt
Ron Bergevoet
荷兰瓦赫宁根经济研究所
Wageningen Economic Research,the Netherlands
关键词Keywords:
抗生素使用Antibiotics use
面板数据Panel data
来自猪场的实验结果Farm results
调查Survey
行为因素Behavioural factors
摘要Abstract
2009年，荷兰政府提出了减少兽用抗生素使用的政策目标，即：与2009年相比，2011年兽用抗生素的使用将减少20%，2013年减少50%，2015年减少70%。使用Farm Accountancy Data Network数据库对政策改革期间荷兰母猪场抗生素的使用与猪场生产业绩之间的关系进行了分析，所用数据来自2004年至2016年具有代表性的农场。结果表明，抗菌药物的使用有明显下降趋势，下降幅度为57%。面板数据分析(n=74个母猪场)显示，抗生素使用的减少不会对农场的技术或经济效益造成负面影响。也对为改善动物健康而采取的措施进行了后续调查，这些措施使减少抗生素的使用成为可能。在接触的79家母猪养殖户中，有55家参与了本次调查。这些养殖户采取了各种相对容易和经济上负担得起的措施，比如更加关注卫生、使用止痛药和消炎药，或者进行更多的预防免疫。多元线性回归模型显示，意愿、感知到的风险和不确定性、感知的能力（保持抗生素的使用处于或低于目标值）是2014-2016年抗生素使用最重要的预测因子。使用抗生素多的母猪农场主更担心低抗生素使用量会损害他们的农场生产成果，他们感知到更多的风险和不确定性，而对于他们自身是否有足够的知识和时间则没有怎么考虑过。这些结果表明，向这些农场主提供有关减少抗生素使用的管理措施的知识和信息可能会有所帮助。因此，若有兽医甚至是饲料供应商的持续参与（最好是能提供个性化的建议）将是很有帮助的，因为结果表明，所采访的母猪农场主表示，个性化的建议是首选的获得信息和知识的途径，而这些信息和知识的最主要的来源是兽医，其次是饲料供应商。总之，研究表明，在不影响经济或技术性能的前提下，也可以很成功地减少抗生素的使用。此外，考虑农场主的态度、认知和偏好可以帮助更好地理解他们的决策和制定客制化的干预措施。
In 2009,the Dutch government provided policy objectives(i.e.,targets)for a reduction in veterinary antibiotics use of−20%in 2011,−50%in 2013 and−70%in 2015 relative to the use in 2009.The relationship between antibiotics use and performance of Dutch sow farms during this policy reform was analysed using the Farm Accountancy Data Network database comprising cross-sectional farm data from 2004 to 2016.The results show that there is a significant downward trend in antibiotics use of 57%.Panel data analysis(n=74 sow farms)revealed that the reduction in antibiotic use did not lead to negative effects on technical or economic farm results.A follow-up survey was conducted on measures taken to improve animal health,which made the reduction in antibiotic use feasible.Of the 79 sow farmers approached,55 participated in this survey.Sow farmers used a variety of relatively easy and affordable measures,such as more attention to hygiene,use of pain killers and anti-inflammatory agents,or applied more preventive vaccinations.Multivariable linear regression models showed that the intention,perceived risk and uncertainty,and perceived capability(to keep or get the use of antibiotics under the target value)were the most important predictors for antibiotics use from 2014 to 2016.Sow farmers who used more antibiotics were more concerned that low antibiotics use compromises their farm results,perceived more risk and uncertainty,and thought to a lesser extent that they have enough knowledge and time.These results indicate that providing these farmers with knowledge and information on management practices to reduce the use of antibiotics may be helpful.Thereby,it would be useful to focus on continuous involvement of the veterinarian and possibly the feed supplier,preferably by means of individual advice,as the results showed that individual advice was the preferred way to gather knowledge for the interviewed sow farmers and the veterinarian appeared to be the most important source of information to the interviewed sow farmers,followed by the feed supplier.In summary,the study shows that decrease in antibiotics use can be quite successful without compromising on the economic or technical performance,and moreover taking into account farmers’attitudes,perceptions and preferences can be helpful to get a better understanding of farmers’decision making and is useful for the design of tailor-made interventions.
1.介绍Introduction
抗菌素耐药性是当今最严重的公共卫生危机之一。这是各国政府、世界各地主要的医疗和公共卫生组织都公认的。因此，现已在世界范围内采取行动并制定行动计划，以在国家和国际层面上减少抗菌素耐药性(世卫组织，2016年)。在许多国家，包括荷兰，政府将减少兽医抗生素的使用作为限制耐药性(进一步)发展的重要途径(Laxminarayan和Brown,2001年)。抗生素耐药性会降低人类药物的有效性。因此，家畜养殖中抗生素使用的减少将限制耐药细菌的选择，从而降低其传播给人类的风险(Bondt et al.,2016).
Antimicrobial resistance is one of the most serious public health crises today.Governments,leading medical and public health organizations around the world agree with that.Therefore,worldwide initiatives are taken and action plans are developed to reduce antimicrobial resistance both at national and international level(WHO,2016).In many countries,and also in the Netherlands,governments steer towards a reduction in veterinary antibiotic use as an important pathway to limit(the further)development of antimicrobial resistance(Laxminarayan and Brown,2001).Antibiotic resistance can reduce the effectiveness of human medicine.As a result,a reduction of antibiotic use in livestock farming will limit the selection for resistant bacteria,which will reduce the risk of their transmission to humans(Bondt et al.,2016).
荷兰当局在1990年要求荷兰兽医协会制定抗生素政策(Bondt et al.,2016)。随后，在2008年，荷兰政府与荷兰兽医协会和畜牧部门一起发起了减少畜牧业中抗生素的使用活动，并生成了谅解备忘录(Bondt和Kortstee,2016;Bondt等，2016)。2009年，政府提出了目标，即：与2009年相比，2011年抗生素的使用减少20%，2013年减少50%，2015年减少70%(Bondt等，2016)。此外，欧盟在2006年禁止使用所谓的抗生素生长促进剂(AGPs)(欧盟委员会，2005年)。
The Dutch authorities requested the Dutch Veterinary Association to develop an antibiotic policy in 1990(Bondt et al.,2016).Subsequently in 2008,the Dutch government together with the Dutch Veterinary Association and livestock sectors took the initiative to decrease antibiotics use in the livestock sector as laid down in a memoranda of understanding(Bondt and Kortstee,2016;Bondt et al.,2016).In 2009,the government provided objectives(i.e.,targets)for a reduction in veterinary antibiotics use:−20%in 2011,−50%in 2013 and−70%in 2015 relative to the use in 2009(Bondt et al.,2016).Moreover,European Union forbade the use of so-called AGPs(Antibiotic Growth Promoters)in 2006(European Commission,2005).
Bondt等人(2016)指出，农场主可能会因为担心抗生素使用对自己或农场附近的人的健康造成影响，从而改变他们使用抗生素的倾向。然而，由于减少农场抗生素的使用在大多数情况下要实施一些措施以提高动物健康和改变动物健康管理，因此农场主比较担心随之而来的相关费用和成本(Coyne et al.,2014)，以及这些做法是否会对农场产生负面的经济影响(Speksnijder et al.,2015;Visschers等，2016)。
Bondt et al.(2016)noted that farmers may have an inclination to change their antibiotics due to concerns over health impacts of antibiotics use on themselves or people close to the farm.However,since reducing antibiotic use on farms involved in most cases implementing measures to enhance animal health and changing animal health management,farmers are concerned of associated costs(Coyne et al.,2014)and whether this does have a negative implication for the economic performance of the farm(Speksnijder et al.,2015;Visschers et al.,2016).
多项研究报告了与抗生素使用相关的因素。大多数学术出版物表明，减少抗生素的使用并不会对经济表现产生影响。例如，抗生素与盈利能力之间的关系在AGP禁令之前和之后都进行了核查。不同农场的核查结果表明，AGP禁令并没有影响它们的生产水平或盈利能力(Emborg et al.,2001;Aarestrup等，2010)。然而，应该指出的是，在荷兰，在2006年之前，生长促进剂使用的减少几乎完全被治疗性抗生素使用的增加所抵消。此外，保育场问题很严重，显示抗生素的使用和生产水平之间存在显著的联系(McDowell等，2008年)。其他文献作者指出，风险和不确定性也扮演了重要角色，因为规避风险的农场主可能倾向于使用更多的抗生素(Ge et al.,2014)。尽管如此，抗生素还是可以用来掩盖不良管理或动物健康问题(Ge et al.,2014)。根据这一点，最近的干预研究表明，预防措施可以减少对抗菌素的需求，并创造经济净效益。对于育肥场来说，从熟知的生产者那里购买健康状况较高的仔猪是一个比较好的预防措施(Kruse et al.,2018,2019)。农场主可能认为抗生素或抗菌素是一种成本较低的解决方案，因此比接种疫苗或其他预防措施更具成本效益。其他研究指出农场主对预防措施缺乏了解(Moreno,2014;Speksnijder等，2015a)。甚至一些兽医也担心，禁用抗菌素可能会对家畜生产的生产水平造成生负面影响(Coyne等人，2014年)。但是，大多数的这些研究主要关注生产水平而不是经济效益，或者说没有将行为与经济效益联系起来。然而，要帮助农场主改变他们的日常操作，就需要洞察他们是否有意愿、动机和能力去改变，影响这些能力和动机的因素是什么（如知识和教育），以及是否有改变的机会（如潜在的时间、金钱或合适的圈舍条件的约束）(Ölander and Thøgersen,1995;Michie et al.,2011)。需要注意的是，对有希望的干预措施的接受和扩大应用的过程往往是令人失望。其中一个原因可能是，人们通常认为农场主和其他行为人是理性的、自私自利的经济行为人。然而，新的见解已经越来越清楚地表明，心理和社会学因素也是影响因素，应考虑内在动机、道德信念、社会偏好、互惠互利和同伴群体的影响(Edwards-Jones,2006;Herzfeld and Jongeneel,2012;Garforth,2014)。
Multiple studies report on the factors that are associated with antibiotics use.Most academic publications suggest that there does not exist an effect of decreased antibiotics use on economic performance.For instance,the relation between antibiotics and profitability was tested prior and after the AGP ban.The AGP ban did not affect the productivity or the profitability of the different farms(Emborg et al.,2001;Aarestrup et al.,2010).It should be noted,however,that in the Netherlands,the reduction in the use of growth promoters in the years before 2006 was almost entirely offset by an increase in therapeutic antibiotic use.Furthermore,nursery pig farms had serious problems and showed a significant association between antibiotic use and productivity(McDowell et al.,2008).Other authors state that risk and uncertainty play a role as risk-averse farmers may tend to use more antibiotics(Ge et al.,2014).Nevertheless,antibiotics can be used in reaction to mask poor management or animal health(Ge et al.,2014).In accordance with this,recent intervention studies showed that preventive measures can decrease the need for antimicrobials and create economic net benefits.A relevant preventive measure,for a pig finishing farm,is the purchase of piglets with a high health status from a known producer(Kruse et al.,2018,2019).Farmers may perceive antibiotics or antimicrobials as a less costly solution and therefore more cost-effective than vaccinations or other preventive measures.Other research point towards a lack of knowledge of farmers on preventive measures(Moreno,2014;Speksnijder et al.,2015a).Even some pig vets feared that a ban on antimicrobials may have negative consequences for the productivity of livestock production(Coyne et al.,2014).Yet,most of these studies primarily focussed on productivity rather than economic performance,or did not link behaviour with economic performance.However,to help farmers to change their daily practise,insight is needed on their willingness and motivation to change,on their capability and ability to change,on factors that influence this capability and ability,e.g.knowledge and education,and on the opportunity to change,e.g.possible constraints regarding time,money or a suitable housing system(Ölander and Thøgersen,1995;Michie et al.,2011).Background of this is that uptake and upscaling of promising interventions often is disappointing.A reason for this may be that it is often assumed that farmers and other agents are rational,self-interested economic agents.However,new insights have made increasingly clear that psychological and sociological elements should also be taken into account,with consideration of intrinsic motivations,moral convictions,social preferences,reciprocity and the impact of peer groups(Edwards-Jones,2006;Herzfeld and Jongeneel,2012;Garforth,2014).
The objective of this study was twofold,namely to test the association between antibiotics use and farm performance of sow farms in the Netherlands by means of panel data analysis,and to gain insight in behavioural factors,such as intentions,attitudes,beliefs and perceptions,that explain the behaviour response to keep or get the use of antibiotics under the target value by means of a complementing survey among farmers in the panel.Sows farms were chosen due to the larger antibiotics use relative to fattening pig farms.The time period of interest was from 2004 to 2016,which captured the period with structural reforms in antibiotic use of 2011,2013 and 2015.The use of antibiotics decreased approximately with 50%from 2009 to 2014(Bondt and Kortstee,2016)and thus provided the opportunity to estimate the impact and behavioural responses of a sharp decline in antibiotic use.
2.方法Method
2.1.数据收集Data collection
抗生素的使用(MARAN,2002-2019;MARAN,2002)和农业生产成绩(Agrimatie,2019)之间的关系需要多个步骤来评估。分析是基于瓦赫宁根经济研究的Farm Accountancy Data Network(FADN)面板数据集进行的。FADN数据集包含了对荷兰一些母猪场(n=79)技术变量和经济变量每年重复测量的数据。由于可以对同一单元进行重复观察，因此有可能指定和评估比单一横截面或单一时间序列更复杂和更实际的模型。由于观察都是在同一单元内重复的，因此假设不同的观察结果是独立的已经不再合适了(Hsiao,1985)。此外，还对FADN系统内的母猪场农场主进行了一项后续调查，以收集更多关于行为因素的数据，如意愿、态度、信念和看法(见第2.4节)，这些因素可能导致每个动物年内抗生素日使用量减少(NDD)。计算日使用量需要每个动物物种使用的单个活性物质数量的详细信息(Bondt et al.,2013)。该调查是通过电话或拜访母猪农场主而收集的数据（具体调查途径取决于农场主的选择）。
Multiple steps were needed to estimate the relation between antibiotics use(MARAN,2002-2019;MARAN,2002)and the farm performance(Agrimatie,2019).Analysis was based on the Farm Accountancy Data Network(FADN)panel dataset of Wageningen Economic Research.The FADN dataset contained repeated measurements of technical as well as economic variables per year for(among others)Dutch sow farms(n=79).The availability of repeated observations on the same units made it possible to specify and estimate more complicated and more realistic models than a single cross-section or a single time series would do.Since the observations were repeated on the same unit,it was no longer appropriate to assume that different observations are independent(Hsiao,1985).In addition,a follow-up survey was carried out among FADN sow farmers to gather additional data on behavioural factors such as intentions,attitudes,beliefs and perceptions(see Section 2.4)that may lead to a lower number of daily doses of antibiotics per animal year(NDD).Calculating NDD requires detailed information about the amount of individual active substances used per animal species(Bondt et al.,2013).The survey data were collected by telephone or by visiting the sow farmer,depending on the preference of the farmer.
2.2.数据处理和变量选择
Data processing and variable selection
通过回顾文献(Emborg et al.,2001;Argiles and Slof,2003;Van der Fels-Klerx et al.,2011)选取了相关的FADN变量。图1是概念模型。抗生素的使用以NDD(每个动物年的日使用量)表示。它是每个动物年内每头猪(平均)每天使用的所有抗生素的量。除抗生素使用情况外，自变量也被纳入模型，以考虑这些变量引起的(时变)变化。这使我们能够看到抗生素的使用和生产性能之间的统计联系，前提条件是所有其他因素都是恒定不变的。
A selection of relevant FADN variables was made based on reviewing literature(Emborg et al.,2001;Argiles and Slof,2003;Van der Fels-Klerx et al.,2011).Fig.1 depicts the conceptual model.The antibiotics use is expressed as NDD(number of daily doses per animal year).It is the number of daily doses of all the antibiotics that an animal(on average)receives per year.The independent variables,apart from antibiotics use,were entered into the models in order to account for the(time-varying)variation caused by these variables.This enabled us to see the statistical association between antibiotics use and performance,conditional on the fact that all other factors are constant.
图1：因变量(抗生素使用)和自变量之间的联系的可视化概念模型。
Fig.1.The conceptual model for sow farms that visualizes the associations between the dependent variables(antibiotic use)and the independent variables.
The five dependent performance variables include farmer income,productivity measures(delivered piglets per sow),total revenue,animal health costs and total costs.These had a(financial)hierarchical structure as animal health costs are part of the total costs,delivered animals are part of the total revenue,and total costs and total revenue are part of the farmer income.This allowed us to view the effect of antibiotics use at different levels of farm recordings.The independent variables can have an association with all the dependent variables in the conceptual model,apart from the independent variable of price.The age of the farmer may have affected the performance of a farm(Argiles and Slof,2003).Additionally,the number of sows present on the farm may have affected the performance as it allows for scale efficiencies.Furthermore,the modernity of the farm may have influenced the performance of the farm as differences in the level of technology implementation may explain performance.Modernity was operationalized as the percentage of the current balance value of the buildings divided by the new value of the buildings.The model included labour per sow as this controls for differences in performance due to labour intensity.The model also included the feed-related variables piglet feed per piglet per year,sow feed per sow per year,sow feed price and piglet feed price.The feed costs had a significant share of the total costs(Hoste,2017),so they would have had a considerable influence on the(financial)farm performance.The financial(performance)variables(i.e.income,costs and revenues)are divided by the average number of sows present on the farm to increase interpretability.
猪场常见消毒误区分析与有效对策，
想把猪发病率降低70%，这些猪场生物
想把猪发病率降低70%，这些猪场生物
针对非瘟的防控，怎么选择有效的消
清理猪舍的两个诀窍，猪农验证，省
脚下有泥，心中有光 | 牧原农艺师
携手共赢，友谊长存：江西正邦作物保
国新办举行7月份国民经济运行情况新
农业农村部就2022年“三夏”生产形势